The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has severely eroded the forecast for Russia's economic development and peace for 2009. Developed countries faced with the deepest recession since the Second World War, believe in the IMF. The decline in GDP in developed economies is expected in 2009 on the the level of 2%. The economy of Russia, according to the calculations of experts Fund, waiting for a more serious slowdown than expected in the Russian government. The volume of Russian GDP in the version of the fund will fall to 0.7%, rather than 0.2% as expected in the Ministry of Economic Development.
No negative forecasts for Russia international organizations have not given: The World Bank estimates that Russia's GDP in 2009 to grow by 3%, the Bank holds the growth of 1%. Citi Russia predicts zero growth. Rather, they changed its forecast to a negative, as well as assessment of the IMF is "proactive," notes Vedomosti.
Back in November, the IMF predicted that Russia's economy is not only in volume, but also to grow this year at 3.5%. In doing so, such a forecast was considered to be quite pessimistic, writes Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
- S & P: there is a risk of insolvency of Russia from the decline of economic growth in the world
- Yurgens: Economic growth in Russia in 2009 may go to minus 10%
- Experts: still rather optimistic forecast of the IMF
- Shuvalov in Davos substantial devaluation of the ruble in poor prognosis
- Putin admitted in Davos: the crisis exposed the weakness of Russia
- Top managers are not waiting for good results from 2009
- IMF predicts lower inflation in the world
- The Russian economy begins "classic stalemate"
- Maxim Blant: leitmotif IMF report - required large-scale political solutions
- Last week the international reserves of Russia "lost" at 9.7 billion dollars
- Among the least developed countries will have to Britain
Previously published reports of the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) on the status and immediate prospects for the global and national economies on the two times a year - spring and autumn. However, because of the crisis, experts have to prepare additional interim refine their estimates. Thus, the October WEO report was revised Fund in November. Then, the forecast growth in the Russian economy has been reduced from 5,5 to 3,5% of GDP in 2009. Now, the growth of the economy of Russia in this year's speech did not go. " However, next year the Russian economy, according to IMF projections, all the same to grow - by 1.3%.
Much more gloomy IMF looks at the prospects for the U.S. as the locomotive of world economy. The IMF suggests that U.S. GDP in 2009 decreased by 1.6%. The previous forecast by the fall in total by 0,7%.
For the world economy, the IMF lowered the forecast of growth of 2,2%, expected in November, to 0.5% fall of the economy of Japan, according to a new forecast of the IMF, reached in 2009 2,6%, while the euro - 2%. In November, experts from the fund had expected that the decline of these economies will not exceed 0.5% and 0.2% respectively. The resumption of growth in the world economy, predicts in 2010, when the world's GDP can grow at 3% of U.S. GDP - at 1.6%, Japan - by 0,6%, the euro - on 0,2%.
Remarkably, even a few days ago, members of the IMF expected the correction of the projections for 2009 is not so radical. According to Deputy Director of Department of monetary systems and capital markets, the IMF Axel Bertuh-Samuels, the forecast for GDP can be reduced by 1-1,5%.
Experts: still rather optimistic forecast of the IMF
The dramatic deterioration of forecasts for Russia, experts explain the more stringent assessment of the depth of the crisis, as well as a sharp decline in incomes. "The pace of the fall in real incomes and rising debts on wages suggests that the decline in the economy could be 2-2,5% in 2009" - says a leading economist of the Center for Development Valery Mironov.
In addition, according to the economist, in 2009, is expected deterioration in the investment momentum, since even in the case of the revitalization of many companies try to restore the boot capacity, rather than invest in new projects. "Strengthening the IMF's pessimism regarding the world economy is due to the structural nature of the crisis, to exit from which would require changes in rules for the functioning of the global financial system", - said Mironov.
"Because of recent negative news can be called a message Rosstat a decline of industrial production in December at 10.3%, as well as a decrease in real disposable income - to 11.6% in December to December. People are really poor, which inevitably reduces the demand," - Chief Economist, said "discovery" Danila Levchenko. According to him, the government forecast, and forecast of the IMF little different, and can be attributed to the optimistic.
The experts found no explanation for such optimism in economic matter, but only in the field of psychology. "Hello forecasts is largely due to psychological causes. National governments and supranational organizations do not want to frighten people beforehand excessive pessimism. In addition, national authorities and to some extent are responsible for the negative development of the situation," - said Levchenko.
Top managers are not waiting for good results from 2009
Because of the global economic recession is the mood of the leaders of the world's leading companies fell to its lowest level of the past six years. Only 21% of top managers expect from the 2009 financial year of positive results, showed a study by the audit firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). A year ago the same figure was 50%, says RBC daily.
The basis of the report of 12th Annual Global CEO Survey 2008, which PwC presented in conjunction with the opening of the International Economic Forum in Davos, a survey of top managers of the world's leading corporations. PwC has held it in the fourth quarter of 2008, interviewed 1124 director of companies from 50 countries.
"The pace and intensity of a recession because for heads of state of health concerns and the companies that led to the global crisis of confidence" - said the general director of PwC Samuel Dipyatstsa, noting that the pessimism in the future look now 25% of respondents: "They are concerned about only one - whether their firms to stay on the water. " And that pessimism has spread to all managers of the world, all industries and business. If the year before the first signs of concern over the deteriorating conditions raised guidance only American, European and Japanese companies, it now because of the crisis is fully experienced the managers and other states.
IMF predicts lower inflation in the world
The IMF predicts a significant decline in inflation in the world in the near future. The main reason for this change is called a slowdown economic growth and consumer prices news agency.
"In countries with developed economies is expected to fall in inflation to 3.5% in 2008 to a record low 0.25% in 2009" - says the prognosis of the IMF.
In 2010 that figure is projected to increase to 0.75%. "Moreover, Some of the developed countries some time there will be a very slight increase in consumer prices or even decrease, "- note the experts Fund.
In the IMF believes that a similar situation will occur in countries with developing economies. There, inflation is expected to be 5.75% in 2009 and 5% in 2010. For comparison, in 2008 the figure was 9.5%.
The Russian economy is beginning to "classic" stalemate "
Macro-economic statistics of the end of 2008, gives every reason to believe that the problem of stagflation in Russia, as economists warned the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term forecasting is becoming a reality, Kommersant daily.
In economic theory considered the situation of economy, where the downturn in the industry and is accompanied by a decline in GDP growth in consumer prices and unemployment. Classical causes of high prices is the maintenance of monopolies in the cyclical economy and the fall-cyclical policy of the government, which seeks to replace the market demand infusion of budget funds.
The term "stagflation" was born in Britain in 1965. In the U.S., a period of stagflation are the years 1970-1981, when the growth rate of consumer prices reached almost 15% unemployment rate - 9%, and the economy in recession times provided.
According to December 2008, the Russian economy looks like a classic case of stagflation. In December, inflation, although slowing, but was 0.7%, GDP fell by 0.7%, while unemployment rates increased to 26.1%. Since the beginning of 2008 the situation has not changed. According to published yesterday to Rosstat, from 1 to 26 January 2008 consumer prices rose by 2% (exactly the Ministry anticipated in the entire January), but on the basis of the month Rosstat counts on rising inflation in 2,4% (2,3% in January 2007).
The main reason for the accelerated inflation in January was the increase in tariffs . Economists do not expect to restore economic growth up to the IV quarter of 2009 and predicted that in the short term, the economy of Russia expect mass dismissals. It seems to in 2009, deliberately laid, and the government, forecasting the decline of GDP in 2009 to 0.3% and inflation at 13%, justifying the expansion of the budget, designed to extinguish a cash crisis.
However, stagflation, as economists warn, and the experience of other countries, afraid that the macroeconomic background for investment is becoming the most disadvantaged. Economy falls, prices rise, the risks are increasing: in such a situation, to calculate the cost of investment projects has become extremely difficult. In such a situation, attempts to run the state economy through massive injections of budget money can not succeed only by creating conditions for accelerated growth in money supply and greater dispersal of inflation.
