Prices of housing in Russia by the end of 2009 could fall by 60%

By the end of next year, the dollar price of housing in Moscow dropped to 47-60% in the primary market and 37-51% in the secondary, in other regions of Russia have a similar trend, writes Vedomosti, with reference to a forecast of Sberbank of Russia.

The rapid fall in house prices could begin shortly in Moscow and the whole of Russia, said the review of macroeconomic research center Sberbank "Prices of real estate in Russia and the world: current trends and challenges"

The main factors influencing the price, experts point called a slowdown in personal income, capital and credit contraction. They miscalculated two scenarios.

First, the base assumes GDP growth of 2,5-3,5%, inflation - 11%, while the dollar - 30 rubles. In this case, a general decline in prices in Moscow at 34.3% in rubles and 46.6% in the currency in the primary market and 23.1% in rubles and 37.4% in the currency - in the secondary (hereinafter IV quarter of 2009 to the III quarter of 2008).

Second, stressful scenario assumes GDP stagnation or even decline to 2.5% inflation "somewhat higher", and the devaluation of the ruble to the dollar "much deeper". It is the primary market prices in rubles dropped to 38.1% in the U.S. - at 59.6% and in the secondary - to 25.1% in rubles and 50.6% in dollars.

In other Russian regions will also drop, but less - there is no price bubble, the authors believe the review. "In view of the insufficient number of regional data" its forecast, they are building for aggregate real estate market of Russia. " In regions of the baseline scenario decline in the prices of primary market of 7.5% in rubles and 24.8% in dollars on the secondary - 7.6% in rubles and 24.9% in dollars; stress - 11.8% and 41,8% in the primary market and 9.7% and 40.4% in the secondary.

Vice-president of the Guild of Realtors Russia Konstantin April in general agreement with Sberbank forecast : housing prices should fall next year twice.

However, he believes that the correction in the regions will be not less but more profound: "Since August 1998, prices in Moscow on the secondary real estate dropped by 32% and in regions such as Perm - by 59%. In the current situation, prices will be behave in the same manner, and in regions with the ratio of mortgage to 35% drop in prices will be very strong. "

Prices for commercial real estate is likely to show similar dynamics, analysts believe the Savings Bank. According to Constantine Apreleva, real prices of deals with commercial real estate has been adjusted by 40%. Commercial real estate in heart of Moscow Tver region in the streets now being sold from 5000-7000 dollars per 1 square. M. This collapse of the market "- is confident he said.